USA 250: Focus on the Future-by: Dr. Dave Kohl
2026 will be a landmark year for our country. It will mark the 250th celebration of the birth of the nation. While this may sound old, when compared to many other European and Asian nations, calling us a teenager may be a better description. In my travels to over 30 states in the last year, working with producers, lenders, thought leaders, and citizens from all walks of life, unsettledness and the lack of a North Star or direction are the concerns I hear most. Of course, geopolitical concerns, military action, and consumer, societal and economic trends only layer on the emotion and reinforce this lack of direction, clarity, and focus.
Strategic Thinking
Over the decades, as a business owner, educator, and consultant, I have seen that a good old-fashioned SWOT analysis; examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, can be a first step in both inward and outward assessment. This analysis allows you to determine how we got here and, more importantly, how we are going to get there. This analysis also challenges us to think critically and look around the corner to determine the North Star or the guiding light and map out the journey to the destination.
Ask ChatGPT
Late last summer, after four hours of mowing hay, which gives one time to think, particularly in the beautiful fields nestled in the valleys of the Blue Ridge Mountains, I envisioned conducting a SWOT analysis of the USA on her 250th birthday. That evening, on a napkin, I bulleted out a preliminary analysis. Then, in the office the next day, I engaged ChatGPT to determine if a SWOT analysis had ever been conducted on the United States. Six minutes later, the conclusion was: yes, but to a very limited degree by some leading think tanks. Then I prompted AI to conduct a SWOT analysis and compared its results to mine sketched out on the napkin from my hayfield think tank. Interestingly enough, 80 to 90 percent of our work was similar.
SWOT 250
The following is a quick and simple SWOT analysis of the USA on her 250th birthday. As you read through each section, think about how it will impact the agriculture industry, your business, family, and personal life. Keep in mind, this is a quick, simple analysis designed to stimulate critical thinking.
Strengths
A strength of the USA is its vast natural resource base of productive land and forests. When combined with Canada, the region holds 20 percent of the freshwater on the globe. The USA has the largest navigable waterway system in the world, which is imperative for moving agriculture and manufacturing goods in an expedient and cost efficient manner.
The capital structure, legal system, and property rights are strengths when compared to other developed and emerging nations. The educational system, while not perfect, has helped develop our productive society. The United States military remains a premier national strength, characterized by its status as the world's most advanced fighting force. The USA, through the Marshall Plan investment after World War II with both time and money in Asia and Europe, made the country a post-World War II global influencer for over 75 years. However, a major strength of the USA has been its economic, societal, and entrepreneurial enterprisewhich has allowed agriculture and small business to thrive thanks to technology, innovation, and other trends.
Weaknesses
A candid assessment of the weaknesses reveals extremes in our political system. The lack of trust and inconsistent policies have placed doubt in citizens and society, manifested by social media and other broadcast communications. The aging population and a reactive healthcare system, where 20 percent of the federal budget is encumbered, are an Achilles' heel. Layer on the debt of $38+ trillion dollars and out-of-control budget deficits and fiscal spending that impacts global competitiveness while also challenging business, household, and personal finances.
The future budget obligations for medical and social costs, along with the concentration of wealth and income, place a formidable challenge. Aging infrastructure and the dependence on a service-based economy based on consumption of borrowed money do not bode well for the future.
Opportunities: The Sunrise or Green Shoots
Turning toward a focus on the future, opportunities arise if there is a concentration on entrepreneurship, applied technology, innovation, and problem-solving. The USA can be the leader in natural resources and the environment with a focus on regenerative practices not only in agriculture but in other components of business and society.
A major trend that is emerging with significance to the agriculture industry is proactive health and lifestyle. In the years ahead, the collaboration of the agriculture industry and the medical profession with a focus on eating and lifestyle habits can and will be a solution to the bulging healthcare costs. Soil and water health will be top of mind. Healthy soil and water through regenerative practices resultin healthy plants, animals, human beings, and the environment. Designer systems customized to individuals will be accelerated by AI, which will drive change in agriculture's quest to provide food and fiber.
Nations will not compete on their own, even ones like the USA. In the future, global blocs will compete. This will be an advantage to the USA. The North American bloc; USA, Canada, and Mexico is 5 percent of the global population and 29 percent of the world economy. Think about that: one concentrated center of consumer wealth and competitive advantage. This global bloc will compete against the European, Asian, and global South blocs moving toward 2030.
Threats
No doubt we will see a technological AI 9/11 in the future, where physical invasions of a country will be replaced by technological disruptions. This will create both physical and societal challenges, which will bring agriculture to the forefront of basic needs. Expect the fragmentation of the global economy, or deglobalization, to continue to challenge businesses in the agriculture industry. On the radar screen will be the threats of dollar devaluation and, of course, the interest on our bulging federal debt, which will impact our competitiveness in business but also at the household level. Population concentration in urban areas with infrastructure challenges will also challenge water and natural resources, providing challenges to both consumer and societal order.
Strategically Focusing on the Future
A strong North American bloc initiative with the revamping of the North American trade agreement, USMCA, will be critical for global competitiveness. North America is a very integrated region in terms of business, industry, and consumer trends. Mexico and Canada have historically been important in agriculture. As our number one and number two export markets, they also provide vital imported goods and services.
An emphasis on entrepreneurship with the restructuring of education should include an emphasis on vocational and technical education and a focus on human interaction and life skills. This is where 4-H and FFA and other agricultural leadership programs have been and can be, a model in the development of youth skills.
Proactive health, outlined previously in this article, will be driven by future generations not only here in the United States, but globally. It has the potential to benefit physical, mental, personal, and societal well-being.
A tough stance on our deficits and debt will be critical. A three to one formula of budget cuts to tax increases, which was put forward years ago in a bipartisan manner, but shot down, may get some traction in the future. This will be tough medicine, but it needs to be implemented to maintain our business and global competitiveness.
Finally, the restructuring of executive powers and political leadership, along with revamping the primary systems where extremes backed by wealth and power dominate the current environment, will be necessary.
This article was designed to be forward thinking and to stimulate thought in your business, career, family, and personal life. Utilize this analysis to bring it down to your industry, your community, and your own life. Remember, with strategic planning at all levels, change occurs bottom up, not top-down, and oftentimes the answers lie within your frontline people and your community.